Abid Amiri
Economist & Author
09 JULY 2013
In recent months, there is a lot of talk in the media about Afghanistan’s political, and economic situation after the scheduled 2014 NATO combat troop withdrawal. Some people are concerned that the country will dive into chaos, and a civil war will erupt, as witnessed after the Soviet’s withdrawal in 1989. Others are optimistic by saying that Afghanistan will endure the foreign troop pullout and grow out to be a strong and self-sufficient nation. Both arguments are legitimate and grounded in fact. The purpose of this article is to highlight the recent most important political and economic activities in Afghanistan that could either help or hurt with the direction that Afghanistan is taking after 2014.
The most important news of the year for both Afghanistan and for the world for that matter was the opening of the Taliban office in Qatar. This was a bold move by all parties involved. By doing so, President Karzai proved to the people of Afghanistan and the international community that his decade long efforts to bringing peace in Afghanistan are bearing fruit and that in his final days in office, he is able to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. The United States and its allies are financially burdened by the high cost of this war, and are seeking for a way to end it responsibly. Perhaps, end their combat role, but remain in the country in a smaller footprint which will cost less. The greatest beneficiary of this deal is the Taliban. They are given legitimacy as an autonomous political entity by allowing them to raise their white flag on the opening day of the office – even though it has been brought down after President Karzai objected to it. It remains to be seen as to what this office would mean for peace in Afghanistan. However, on a general note, opening of the office could not be a bad thing. As Ambassador Dobbins rightly put it -”You don’t negotiate with your friends; you negotiate with your enemies.” Also, he said “peace talks don’t take place after a war; they take place during the war.” I can’t agree more. Opening of this office is a good first step towards building a peaceful, strong and independent Afghanistan beyond 2014.
On the other hand, last month President Karzai suspended final round of Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) talks with the United States that were supposed to take place that week when the Taliban opened their office in Qatar. On several occasions, President Karzai has used the BSA talks as a leverage to get what he wants from the United States. Often he is successful. For example, in case of ordering the U.S. Special Forces to leave Wardak Province, and handing over of Bagram prison from Americans to Afghan authorities. The negotiations have taken too long. It is concerning. While signing the Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement on May 2012, Presidents Karzai and Obama agreed to conclude BSA negotiations within one year. However, it has been more than a year and there is no sign of final Bilateral Security Agreement. As an Afghan living in the United States, let me be very clear. If the mentality in Afghanistan is that the United States would never leave this country, let me assure you that they will – like they did from Iraq. Any political miscalculation by any of the two parties (Afghan and US) in these negotiations could have devastating effects on long term post 2014 security in Afghanistan. Therefore, President Karzai, please seal the deal and sign the Bilateral Security Agreement.
Finally, it is important to note that the Afghan economy has been slowing down at an alarming rate in the last year or so. This speculation over gradual withdrawal of foreign troops by the end of 2014 is scaring away investor. Last Friday, Anwar ul Haq Ahadi, the Minister of Commerce and Industries warned in a press conference that unemployment, poverty, low investment rates, and declining property values are major challenges in the years to come. The economic growth in the last decade has not been organic. It has been mostly due to high amount of foreign aid pouring into the country. As a result, the economy is heavily dependent on aid. According to a World Bank report, the decrease in foreign assistance post-2014 is likely to cause the economic bubble to burst, plunging the country into an economic recession.
All in all, the picture of post-2014 Afghanistan looks gloomy. It is important for the Afghan government to reconcile with the Taliban and offer them some sort of power-sharing deal. It is understandable that some people are hesitant of having them back in power. However, we cannot have peace without any sort of arrangement with them. Also, the Bilateral Security Agreement is crucial to the peace process. Signing the agreement will allow the Afghan government to have an upper hand at the negotiating table with the Taliban. This idea of waiting the foreign troops out will no longer exist with the Taliban. President Karzai may not like some of the provisions in the agreement, but overall it is a good deal for Afghanistan. Finally, investors are frightened. Giving them some kind of certainty by signing the BSA and initiating talks with the Taliban are good few steps to boost investment in the country. People need jobs. Lack of foreign aid and weak manufacturing sector make it difficult for people to earn a living. This journey to the year 2014 is a momentous and a historic one for Afghanistan. It can make or break the country. Let’s not return back to post-soviet withdrawal time. Make the right calls now and help the country grow out of this trajectory to be a strong and self-sufficient country.